Analysis:
Israel-Syria Clash: With Missile Fire, Assad Is Trying to Change the Rules of
the Game
Israel has
avoided directly commenting on airstrikes in Syria. Until now.
Amos Harel
Mar 19, 2017 9:04 AM
The serious
exchange of missile fire between Israel and Syria early Friday morning reflects
the Assad regime’s attempts to change the unofficial rules of the game. These
are the rules (according to foreign media) by which the two sides have
conducted themselves over the past five years. This is a dangerous development,
although signs of such a shift have been evident for several months now.
At this
stage, though, it doesn’t look like leading toward a wider confrontation
between the sides. Israel’s relative military advantage over Syria is clear,
and it’s doubtful whether Damascus is interested in dragging Israel into a war
– one that from its perspective would wipe out all the achievements the regime
has chalked up in recent months.
From what we
currently know, between Thursday night and Friday morning Israel Air Force
planes attacked targets in Syria (the air force’s recognition of this is the
first time Israel has officially acknowledged such an attack since the start of
the Syrian civil war). In response, rockets were fired into Israel from Syria.
Apparently these were rather outdated, Russian-made SA-5 surface-to-air
missiles. The Israeli planes were not hit, but one of the rockets, or a piece
of one, was identified and intercepted over the Jordan Valley, north of
Jerusalem.
The Israel
Defense Forces operated its air defense system and launched an anti-ballistic
Arrow missile, which intercepted the Syrian missile in the skies as it headed
southward.
Sirens went off in the Jordan Valley and sounds of the explosion
echoed over the Jerusalem and Modi’in areas. A remnant of the Israeli
interception missile landed in Jordanian territory.
The Syrian
civil war erupted six years ago this week. Since the beginning of 2012, there
have been foreign media reports of Israel Air Force airstrikes targeting
convoys transporting weaponry from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel
confirmed that it would act to thwart such shipments when they involve weapons
systems that it defines as being a “game changer.” What this probably means is
precision rockets, advanced anti-aircraft missiles and surface-to-ship
missiles. Nevertheless, until the statement Friday morning, Israel has avoided
making direct comment on the airstrikes.
According to
reports in the Arab media, the convoys were only ever attacked when they were
moving through Syrian territory; once they crossed the border into Lebanon,
they were safe – Israel refrained from attacking them there. Usually, Syria
held back after airstrikes on its territory. But the Russian decision to send
jets to Syria, beginning in the fall of 2015, added a new ingredient to the
mix.
Israel and
Russia were quick to establish a coordination mechanism with the aim of
reducing the risks of undesirable conflict in the air. At the same time, the
Russians deployed radar systems in northern Syria that are able to observe what
is happening at air force bases in Israel – as far south as the northern Negev.
According to
the Arab media, Israel has slightly modified its operation patterns since then:
Attacks on the convoys and weapons depots in Syria have continued – but the
airstrikes are being done from afar. These are “stand-off” attacks, in which
fighter jets launch their missiles from Israeli airspace or – according to
other reports – from over the Mediterranean Sea, west of the Lebanese coast.
Israeli naval
activity on the northern front has also changed. Israel Navy commander Rear
Admiral Dror Friedman said on Army Radio this week that his fleet has sometimes
had to cancel operational activity because of the physical proximity of Russian
vessels.
After another
visit to Putin
Since last
September, Syria has occasionally fired anti-aircraft missiles at Israel Air
Force planes (which are responding to shooting trickling into the Golan
Heights). What is different this time is the Israeli response: A Syrian
anti-aircraft missile penetrated Israeli airspace and, had it landed, may well
have endangered civilian lives. The decision to intercept it using an Arrow
missile led to an aerial incident that couldn’t be concealed: Many civilians
were woken by the sounds of explosions and sirens. As a result, an official
statement was released.
The firing at
the anti-aircraft missile is itself exceptional. The Arrow was developed to
deal with long range, surface-to-surface missiles. In recent years, the Arrow
II system was upgraded to deal with anti-aircraft threats as well.
Nevertheless, it seems the air force will now examine whether there was full
operational justification for the exceptional interception – the first
operational firing of an Arrow missile that Israel has officially reported.
Presumably
the Syrian anti-aircraft salvo was a signal to Israel that the regime’s policy
of restraint in the face of the airstrikes will not remain as it was. President
Bashar Assad’s recent successes – first and foremost the conquest of Aleppo –
have seemingly increased the dictator’s confidence. Israel will have to decide
whether the operational need – to thwart advanced weapons shipments to
Hezbollah – also justifies the possible risk of the downing of an Israeli
fighter jet and a broader conflict developing with Syria.
There is an
interesting question as to whether the aircraft detection radar system was
deployed by Israel’s new great friend, Russia, precisely one week after Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from Moscow after yet another successful
visit to see President Vladimir Putin.
One can
imagine that the intelligence community will also be interested to learn
whether the Syrian decision to fire back was coordinated with Assad’s
collaborators and partners: Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.
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