NOV 2, 2016 1:04 PM
EST
By
There was a brief but impressive show of new U.S. aircraft
technology this week. The problem is that the planes belong to the Chinese
military.
Aided in large part by espionage against
the Pentagon and U.S. firms, the People's Liberation Army air force unveiled
its new J-20 stealth
fighter, which it says is a so-called fifth-generation fighter like
the American F-22 and F-35. Two J-20s flew for just a few minutes at an airshow
in Zhuhai on Tuesday, leaving military experts of two minds about what the J-20
is actually capable of.
While Bradley Perrett of Aviation Week warned it
was "clearly a big step forward in Chinese combat capability," Greg
Waldon of the consultancy FlightGlobal said the big reveal of
the flyby was "we learned it was loud."
If the sparse details released by the Chinese and speculation of
military insiders are accurate, the plane could present some problems should
the cool war in the South China Sea heat up. The jet is said to have a longer
range and more armament than the competing U.S. fighters, and while it doesn't
likely have the computer systems to pose a threat to them, it could make easy
targets of American refueling and surveillance craft.
But as far as U.S. officials are concerned, these capacities
exist only in rumor. This is a common theme in all the Western fretting about
China's cutting edge military prowess: Nobody knows whether any of it is real.
Consider the Chinese military's "carrier-killer
missile," the DF-21D. It was unveiled last year, during
China's celebrations marking the 70thanniversary of the end of World
War II, amid a hype campaign calling it the fastest missile in the world. In
the U.S. military, there is speculation that it has radar that can see over the
horizon and a maneuverable warhead that allows precision guidance as it nears
its target. This has some experts warning that the age of the American aircraft
carrier is over.
But, again, there is little proof that this missile is real or
that China has any of the capabilities that so worry the West. The same can be
said of the YJ-12 missile, which is said to fly just above the surface of the
water to avoid radar tracking. While we've seen these weapons in parades,
demonstrations and airshows, the real question is
what's inside. "Chinese 'hardware' continues to improve dramatically, but
the caliber of the 'software' supporting and connecting it remains uncertain
and untested in war," noted analyst Andrew Erickson in the National
Interest. "The missile components of the DF-21D already are proven through
multiple tests, but China’s ability to use the missile against a moving target
operating in the open ocean remains unproven."
Then there is the new Type 093B nuclear-powered attack
submarine, which some fear may be as deadly as the U.S. Navy's Los Angeles-class
boats. "The 93B is analogous to our LA improved in quietness and their
appearance demonstrates that China is learning quickly about how to build a
modern fast attack boat,” according to Gary
Hendrix of the Center for a New American Security. But high-ranking Navy
officials are more sanguine, noting that in undersea warfare the Chinese
approach has centered on quantity over quality -- Beijing is thought to have at
least 70 attack subs, as compared to around 50 for the U.S. -- and the
consensus among the top Pentagon brass is that China is unlikely to have made
the leaps in technology some fear.
So what does this all mean for long-term U.S. strategy (beyond,
of course, getting better at protecting our military secrets)? If we take the
threat of Chinese advances seriously, the first step would be to take a tough
look at plans to build 10 new
Ford-class supercarriers, which would be quite vulnerable if the
Chinese are really as far along as some fear. This doesn't mean giving up on
carriers -- as forward-based platforms that don't rely on allies for hosting
aircraft, they remain vital. But the wiser fiscal and preparedness choice may
be stopping after the three supercarriers now under construction are completed
and renovating five or so of the existing Nimitz-class, which are still far and
away the terror of the seas. Through smarter management of maintenance and crew
rotations, eight craft could conceivably do as effective a job patrolling the
globe as the Navy's hoped-for 10. (Carriers will always, alas, be more
vulnerable than fake islands.)
Another idea is to make the U.S. fleet more dispersed and
effective through emphasizing "distributed-lethality
warfare." This would involve making far more ships in the fleet
-- including those responsible for reconnaissance, specialized missions such as
mine dispersal, and protecting aircraft carriers -- capable of both striking
the enemy and defending themselves. This gives the enemy more threats to
protect against and more targets to eliminate. To some extent the Navy seems to
be considering the approach; for example, it has upgraded the
armor, weaponry and anti-torpedo capability of its troubled littoral combat
ship.
Inevitably, long-term military thinking is an exercise in
predicting what former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called known unknowns.
The J-20 flyby showed only how little we know about China's drive to become a
cutting-edge military.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the
editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net
Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Philip Gray at philipgray@bloomberg.net
Philip Gray at philipgray@bloomberg.net
Original
post: bloomberg.com
It’s
mind boggling how the USA always underestimate their opponent. I think wars with 3rd rate armies
have inflated their egos.
The
YJ-12 Mach 4 and 400km missile will be in service soon on the renovated Sovremenny class destroyers of the PLAN.
The
J-20 is definitely real and have been in development for several years and are
already in production.
For the carrier as a moving target well a carrier is pretty big and isn't that fast.
Related
post:
No comments:
Post a Comment