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AKK: Kicking the (Super) Hornet's nest?
EDWARD HUNT considers the German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's surprise announcement earlier this year that the Luftwaffe will acquire US-made Boeing Super Hornets and Growlers as well as Eurofighter Typhoons. What lies behind this procurement strategy?
Before the world’s attention was understandably fixed on Covid-19, a subject of mild interest in aerospace circles was the German Air Force’s requirement to replace its ageing Tornado fighter-bombers. Like the Italians, but unlike virtually everyone else in the NATO circle, the Luftwaffe had – very sensibly – retained a dedicated Electronic Warfare (EW) and Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) capability delivered by the Tornado ECR variant. The rise of Russian and Chinese integrated air defence systems (IADS) – capabilities of which are shrouded in mystery and mythology – shows just how prescient a decision this was.
As with many countries, domestic industry considerations are at least as important for defence decisions as capability for the armed forces. In March of 2018, the then-head of the Luftwaffe was praised, honoured, and exalted – i.e. fired – for making the bald assertion that the air force should buy the extremely American F-35. While the Luftwaffe had comfortable operated (F-4 Phantom) and less-comfortably operated (F-104 Starfighter) American aircraft, the unique multi-national supply-chain / system model of the F-35 did not benefit Germany, which had no part in the F-35 and buying it would have had negligible benefit for German industry. Even worse, it would sponsor a competitor to the Eurofighter Typhoon, in which Germany was a major partner. Politically, shunning a domestic product for an imported US design (during arguably the peak of President Trump’s vitriol against European defence contribution) would have been unfortunate timing for European unity. Yet, almost exactly two years later, the German government has announced an intention to replace its very European Tornados with totally un-European Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets. What happened, and why so quickly?
Growler as a Tornado ECR replacement
In 2018, the author spoke with several German Tornado ECR pilots at the Berlin airshow. They were interested in what might become their new mount and suggested the electronic attack version of the Super Hornet; the E/A-18G Growler. This was an entirely sensible option for operational reasons. Indeed, it was arguably the best option to replace – like for like – the Tornado ECRs. But fast-forward to early 2020 and the German Government had decided to lavish both industry and military by replacing the very early Eurofighter Tranche 1s with brand new Eurofighter Tranche 3s from domestic sources. Project Quadriga will add 38 new aircraft to the Luftwaffe’s order of battle, as well as sustaining the German Manching production line and its associated European system suppliers. American fighters – as relevant as they might be – seemed off the table. Indeed, this new order appeared a neat step into a larger buy of Eurofighters.
Leap forward to March 2020, when the scale and cost of the COVID19 virus was still being evaluated, the German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced very suddenly that she had been in contact with the US government and the latter had agreed to the sale of the E/A-18G. Shoulders shrugged; despite Eurofighter offering a two-seater EW-dedicated variant, the Growler was arguably a lower-risk / lower-cost option, even if it offered very little to European defence industry.
However, the surprising news was not the Growler buy: only 15 dedicated Growler Electronic Attack models were ordered to replace the specialist Tornado ECRs. To general puzzlement, Germany would also take delivery of 30 US-produced Super Hornet E/F models – i.e. the US Navy standard multi-role fighters and definitely not a specialist aircraft. A role that the Eurofighter could have performed. Or could it? Debate raged.
The elephant in the room was a hold-over from the Cold War: Germany is historically required to provide an airborne nuclear delivery capability as part of its NATO partnership and contribution. This means the B-61 nuclear bomb; unlike the Tornado, the Eurofighter cannot yet carry this. But, crucially, neither can Boeing’s Super Hornet. This is the part of the puzzle that surprised and confused so many people. To adapt the Eurofighter to carry the B-61 would involve time and cost, although it would have been European time and cost. To adapt the F/A-18 to carry the B-61 will also take time and cost but it will be a completely American solution. Of course, it could be argued that an American weapon integrated for an American aircraft might prove easier and possibly cheaper, though that is a supposition at best. Having foregone its airborne nuclear delivery role, the US Navy certainly was not going to stump up the cash to help the German Air Force integrate a new weapon. Germany is undertaking this alone for the Super Hornet and it is very unlikely that any other potential operator would come on-board. The B-61 delivery role is a not uniquely German problem but jokes about closing nuclear power stations while focussing on carriage of a nuclear weapon were not long in coming.
Fast-tracking procurement
So why did the German government make this decision and why so rapidly? The Tornados will be retired from 2025, so March 2020 was not a crucial point for such thinking to crystallise. Buying domestically produced aircraft would have poured procurement money back into European industry. Barring the publication of internal government documents, the rational for the putative buy (Growler plus the standard Super Hornets) is not entirely obvious. There are, however, several possibly explanations:
- Boeing has faced the sudden and alarming notification that the US Navy will not be buying its Super Hornets after 2021 and therefore needs a sale to keep production open until Canadian, Finnish and Indian decision are made. The price may therefore have been extremely low and the whole package very generous
- Buying a US aircraft took some political pressure off Germany when it came to demonstrating their commitment to the NATO alliance
- Paris, though possibly irked, was content that Germany had not selected the F-35
- The German government looked at the progress of the Eurofighter and determined that a two-seater, strike / EW / SEAD variant of that would be a very expensive and risky proposition. However, a concurrent buy of Eurofighters kept the domestic industry engaged
- A Growler plus ‘F’ model (the two-seater) would be a useful dedicated strike force. Moreover, following the Australian model, the ‘Fs’ could be turned into ‘Gs’, bolstering a fairly unique Luftwaffe EW force.
- A force of 15 Growlers would be a very expensive per aircraft to operate. By comparison, a force of 45 aircraft is probably more sustainable when it came to the economies of scale for the support requirements.
- Just possibly, a decision was rushed before the whole government budget was turned upside-down by the looming pandemic crisis
Any one of these by itself is unlikely to be the whole answer but, considering the above the Super Hornet decision, is perhaps less puzzling. No contract has yet been signed, though statements suggest that Germany – or the Defence Ministry – has apparently decided that the Growler buy was the most logical option to replace the Tornado ECR fleet. Addition purchase of a (probable) two-seater F/A-18F fleet provides the nominal potential for the nuclear B-61 integration, a genuine strike aircraft and / or additional EW models. Plus, 45 aircraft are – all things being considered – cheaper per-aircraft to operate than only 15 when it comes to the availability rates and the support network, for which Germany has previously been criticised.
The wider picture
Taking a longer look, does this decision impact other European aerospace programmes? It will have likely minimal impact on the France-German-Spanish next-generation FCAS programme, though from a German perspective it delays the need for new aircraft. It is unlikely to cause an Italian buy of Super Hornets to replace their ageing Tornados: Italy has always been more firmly behind the Typhoon programme than Germany and in any case has shiny new (locally assembled) F-35s. However, it might cause some ripples in the export market: coming after the US Navy’s decision to discontinue Super Hornet procurement after 2021, this buy is a shot-in-the-arm for Boeing. Specifically, it has significantly improved its chances for a Finnish order. Finland already flies the legacy Hornet C/D model, giving Boeing something of a home-player advantage. A European order for the new Hornet in an EW / strike role – such as Finland requires – offers the possibility of collaboration on support and training. Though Germany is usually reserved on the subject, the purpose of the new aircraft is the penetration of Russian air defences, which is also a primary mission for the Finnish Air Force. Germany choosing the Super Hornet alongside Eurofighters may give Finland pause for thought.
The German Government claims that it advised its NATO allies of this decision ahead of time but it will still likely have annoyed the Eurofighter industry partners. The decision also adds further credence to a suspicion that the Eurofighter consortium is somewhat confounded as to future direction and that the component elements are going their own way (BAE and Leonardo towards F-35 and Tempest, Airbus towards FCAS). Certainly, rumours from the current Indian fighter competition suggests that the Eurofighter bid has been less forceful than might have been expected. The new Eurofighter Tranche 3s are one of the most effective fighters currently in production but the German decision on Super Hornets may diminish spirits in the Typhoon export sales camp.
There is no doubt that a force of Eurofighter Tranche 3s (or 4s / 5s, depending on how you differentiate) and a mixture of ‘F’ and ‘G’ model Super Hornets will provide Germany with an extremely impressive fighter force. However, the decision could be interpreted as something of blow to Eurofighter, which is surprising given the German stake in the programme and the political weight of German high-tech industry. France – usually rather hostile to European purchase of American equipment – has been largely silent: possibly the board of Dassault (which manufactures the Rafale, European competitor to Typhoon) is rather pleased at this swipe to their rival. Dassault and Airbus are co-operating on the FCAS programme, so this purchase is in no way the end of German fighter development but it is something of a shock to see the Super Hornet suddenly operating under the Maltese Cross. Typhoon has a long future ahead of it and is only now reaching where it should have been a decade ago but defence procurement is primarily political and foregoing one’s own product in favour of another does have its repercussions.
Summary
Lockheed’s penetration of the European market with its F-35 was taken as inevitable but not long ago betting on a German Super Hornet fleet while Typhoons were still coming off the production line would have got you long odds. It is – operationally – not necessarily a poor decision but it was rather unexpected and may have an impact on the next round of fighter programmes. Ink has yet to be signed on the contract and Germany’s notoriously lengthy procurement process may torpedo this decision but, as the old fighter pilot’s wisdom observes: it’s the one you don’t see that gets you.
Edward Hunt
3 July 2020
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