December 14, 2016 2:00 pm JST
Decisions loom on defending skies a decade or
more into future
RYOSUKE HANAFUSA, Nikkei
staff writer
TOKYO -- The Japan Air Self-Defense Force needs to upgrade its
fleet of fighters, but it is not clear which plane Japan will choose as the
successor to the aging F-2. The decision is made harder by the entangled
agendas of the Japanese and U.S. companies with skin in the game.
For a while, Lockheed
Martin saw nothing but blue skies for its international collaborative project
with Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries. But Boeing is looking for ways to get back in the
running -- and there are those who have not given up on the dream of a purely
Japanese fighter.
Given the added uncertainties of U.S. decisions under a Trump
administration, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force finds itself traveling a
chaotic path toward next year, when it has to begin the selection process in
earnest.
The Ministry of
Defense issued a request for information as part of the process of selecting a
successor to the F-2, receiving responses from 89 domestic and foreign
companies -- a roster that appears to include the U.S. firms Lockheed Martin,
Boeing, Honeywell, and Raytheon; the U.K.'s Rolls-Royce; and Japanese companies
Mitsubishi Heavy and IHI.
Japan has a fleet of some 90 F-2 fighters, but they are aging.
The Defense Ministry intends to settle on a procurement policy by around fiscal
2018 and begin actual procurement starting in the latter half of the 2020s or
the early 2030s. With a wary eye on China, it wants fighters with stealthy
design and high maneuverability.
Lockheed Martin has a leg up, having snagged an order in 2011
for 42 F-35 jets as successors to the F-4. The F-35 with its stealthy design
was a shoo-in at the time, but technology is advancing and that is no longer
the case.
Boeing, having lost out to Lockheed Martin back then, is
bringing its F-15 to this round of the competition.
In addition to F-4 and F-2, Japan also has a fleet of some 200
F-15s. Developed by McDonnell Douglas, which is now part of Boeing, the F-15 is
a global best-seller.
Boeing
is proposing that Japan upgrade the F-15 with advanced electronics and radar
technology so it can fly the plane until 2040, and in the meantime collaborate
with Boeing so Japan's eventual successor to the F-2 can be equipped with the
kind of future technologies that even the U.S. military has not yet introduced.
James
Armington, vice president for East Asia-Pacific business development in
Boeing's defense unit, noted that the company has a deep relationship with
Japan's aerospace industry for civilian planes such as the 787 and 777, and
that the saAlthough Lockheed's F-35 is the state of the art now, it has just
begun being deployed and the U.S. has already begun thinking about developing a
next-generation fighter. That gives Boeing further reason to promote the idea
that Japan upgrade the F-15 for now.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has tweeted complaints about
the high cost of the F-35, and Japan's defense industry is also dissatisfied
with the fighter.
The F-2 was co-developed by Japan and the U.S., and the F-15 is
manufactured in Japan under license, so in both cases Mitsubishi Heavy plays a
main role, and many Japanese parts makers are involved. In contrast, the U.S.
wants to protect the stealthy technologies of the F-35, so Mitsubishi Heavy
will not gain much in the way of technology by just assembling and maintaining
the planes in Japan.
Meanwhile, the quest
continues to develop a next-generation stealth fighter in Japan. Some 220
Japanese companies including Mitsubishi Heavy, IHI, and Fuji Heavy
Industries are participating in this project, which saw the
maiden flight of the X-2 advanced technology demonstrator this past spring.
For Japan to forge ahead with development of a next-generation
stealth fighter will cost tens of billions of dollars -- but it is seen
as a way to strengthen fundamental technologies and serve as a
bargaining chip.
Mitsubishi
Heavy delivered the last F-2 in 2011, so if Japan opts to upgrade the aircraft
to keep it flying longer, Japan's young aerospace engineers will miss the
opportunity to gain experience and keep Japan's knowledge of fighter
development fresh.
Then
there is the wild card of unmanned planes, which could make maintaining a large
fleet of expensive fighter jets less crucial to national defense.
Japan
has serious decisions to make now regarding its procurement policies to protect
the skies a decade in the future.
Original
post: nikkei.com
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