Pavel Bezrukov - AviaPressPhoto
Author's signature: Xiaotian
According to the US media "Military Observer" website, since December 2021, some Western media have begun to report that Iran and Russia are about to sign a defense procurement agreement worth up to $10 billion, which will include the purchase of 24 Su-35s fighter jets, two S-400 air defense missile systems and a military satellite. According to reports, the contract will also include extending the airframes of Iran's active MiG-29 fighter jets and Su-24MK fighter-bombers, overhauling and upgrading them, and Russia will also train Iranian pilots. The $10 billion contract will be paid for in whole or in part with Iranian crude, the report said. In many respects, however, the deal appears highly irregular and its credibility is questioned. Since the 1990s, Western media have repeatedly reported that Iran has purchased advanced weapons from Russia, including a large number of MiG-29 fighters, MiG-31 interceptors, and even Tu-22M strategic bombers. But as it turns out, that didn't happen.
There are a number of elements in the rumoured Russia-Iran arms deal that seem out of place. Perhaps the most unusual aspect of the deal is that Iran will pay Russia, one of the world's largest oil exporters, for its weapons with oil. And Russia's ability to efficiently refine Iranian crude oil remains in doubt. Although Russia has indeed used barter trade in the past to accept payments for oil, especially when international oil prices are very high, this is very unlikely now. In addition, the contract value of 10 billion US dollars is also doubtful. Judging from the previous export situation, the price of more than 20 Su-35s and two sets of S-400 is about 4 billion US dollars, which also includes related training and transportation. , spare parts, maintenance equipment and the Su-35's airborne weapons. Therefore, in the rumored Iran-Russia military trade agreement, the purchase of new weapons is about more than 4 billion US dollars, while the price of purchasing a satellite and refurbishing an old Soviet-era fighter jet is as high as more than 5 billion US dollars? Therefore, the figure of 10 billion US dollars is difficult to match with the specific projects of the contract.
Other doubts about the contract also include the news that the Su-35 purchased by Iran was originally made for Egypt and was resold to Iran because Egypt cancelled the purchase. But no official source has confirmed that Egypt did cancel the contract. Beyond that, the question remains whether Iran can afford the use of the Su-35. Operating costs for such twin-engine heavy fighters are very high, and it is also the most expensive fighter jet Russia has ever exported, and it remains doubtful whether Iran can afford it. It is reported that Iran intends to purchase the J-10C. Although the J-10C is more complex and technologically advanced than the Su-35 in many aspects, its procurement and operation costs are much less than the Su-35. Considering the current situation of the Iranian Air Force and the need to replace a large number of old fighters, it is more likely that the country will buy lighter and lower cost fighters. If Iran had to procure fighter jets from Russia, the country had shown greater interest in the cheaper Su-30, and could also buy the lighter and cheaper MiG-29M or MiG-35 because they Access to the same maintenance infrastructure as the country's currently equipped MiG-29 fleet. And Iran has also emphasized the requirement to obtain a production license to assemble the new fighter domestically, and the Su-35 is unlikely to meet this requirement, and the MiG-29M or MiG-35 is more likely.
Although the news about Iran's purchase of Russian weapons may attract a lot of attention and may affect domestic public opinion in both Iran and Russia, the purchase of Su-35 and S-400 at a price of 10 billion US dollars, and Iran is still offset by crude oil, This possibility is not high.
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