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F-15EX / U.S. Air Force / William R. Lewis
Austin Huguelet
May 7, 2022
ST. LOUIS COUNTY — One of the biggest wins for Boeing’s St. Louis operations in a while could soon be on the chopping block.
Just a few years after kickstarting a new generation of St. Louis-made F-15 fighter jets, the U.S. Air Force is outlining plans to cut its order nearly in half, to 80 from 144, as they scramble to pay for next-generation priorities.
If left unchecked, the proposal would cost Boeing billions of dollars in contracts and years of work for more than 1,500 of its employees at a time it can hardly afford it. It’s already fighting the Navy’s push to shut down the F/A-18 Super Hornet program, Boeing’s other big fighter line here, by mid-decade.
“They’ve got big second-half-of-decade issues across the board,” said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at AeroDynamic Advisory. “Not good for St. Louis.”
Boeing brushed off the proposal in a statement Friday, calling the new F-15EX a “game changer” for the Air Force that’s already proving itself essential. “We’ll continue to engage with Congress and our Air Force customer in the years ahead to deliver on this program,” the company said.
Analysts noted that Air Force priorities can change, and could yet move in back Boeing’s direction.
The service has done it before. A decade ago, the F-15’s days looked numbered as the U.S. and other allies shifted to Lockheed Martin’s newer, stealthier F-35, built in Texas. News reports then suggested the F-15 line, which began full production in 1972, could shut down by 2020.
Then in 2017, Qatar reached out with a $6.2 billion order that led to work on the updated version of the plane, the EX. And the U.S. Air Force liked what it saw.
By 2019, it was announcing plans to start buying EXs to replace its 1980s-era models, alleviate a fighter shortage and carry larger payloads the F-35 couldn’t. And in 2020, the service said it expected to purchase a minimum of 144 jets, enough to keep the line running through the end of the decade. Boeing officials noted the contract could go as high as 200.
But not everyone in the Pentagon was on board. Some saw the plane as a spiffed-up relic of the Cold War taking away resources from more modern aircraft, said Loren Thompson, a longtime defense industry consultant and executive with the Lexington Institute.
This year’s budget proposal calls for an end to purchases after 2024.
“It appears they’re looking to close out the F-15 in favor of the next generation,” Thompson said.
In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee last week, Air Force officials said the planes were simply a casualty of competing priorities. The service has to modernize its nuclear missiles, pay for a new long-range bomber and develop the successor to the F-35.
But the decision is not the Air Force’s alone. Congress will have the final say, and Boeing still has plenty of supporters there.
“The F-15EX supports good-paying jobs in St. Louis and plays a vital role in meeting U.S. Air Force air superiority needs,” U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt, a Republican, said in a statement on Friday. “As a member of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, I will continue working to secure robust funding for the F-15EX program.”
Boeing officials have said the new-look EX model has also attracted interest from several other countries. Earlier this year, the Pentagon cleared the way for the company to pursue a deal in Indonesia. And in March, a U.S. general predicted F-15s would soon be offered to Egypt.
But those would be band-aids in the grand scheme of things. The company needs a new fighter to replace its decades-old programs, said Thompson, the consultant.
“I hope they have some bright ideas,” he said. “It may be their last shot.”
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