Monday, 9 October 2017

Croatian response to Serbian MiG-i-29 (ANALYSIS)

Croatian MiG-21, photo by Tomislav Haraminčić - www.flickr.com, wikimedia, CC BY-SA 4.0

PUBLISHED: SATURDAY, 07 OCTOBER 2017, 9:07

Juliusz Sabak


Croatia is approaching a decision on the purchase of 18 modern fighter jets that will replace the historic MiG-21s by 2020. Impulse to speed up this process is certainly the delivery to Serbia of six Russian MiG-29s. There are four offers in the Croatian game, three of which concern new or used F-16s, and one Swedish JAS 39 Gripen. 

The impetus for a decision postponed for at least a decade has been the reinforcement of neighboring Serbia, which intensively cooperated militarily with Moscow and Minsk. Belgrade has just received 6 used MiG-29 fighter jets from Russia, and a similar number will be delivered to Belarus next year. For Croatia, which since 2009 belongs to NATO, this is a serious military threat. Soon Serbia will have at least 12 fairly modern MiG-29 fighters that will remain in service for about 14 years.

Croatian squadron of monuments

Meanwhile, Croatia currently has only 11 MiG-21 fighters ( one lost in the disaster in August 2014 ). Of these,  seven have been repaired in Ukraine. In addition to extending the resurrections, they have acquired a new low visibility painting, which, in accordance with current standards, replaced the black and white symbols on the gray background with the distinctive white and red marks. This has not, however, raised the negligible capabilities of these machines.

Used F-16 recently bought Romania, photo VictorCozmei, Wikipedia, CC BY -SA 4.0

The Croatian MiG-i was modified in 2003 to meet NATO's basic requirements. This version carries the MiG-21bis-D in Croatia and the MiG-21bis-UD in two-seater variant. Both have a Western VOR / DME system, ILS and IFF compliant with the NATO standard. Unlike the Romanian MiG-21 LanceR-B fighters, the Croatian planes did not receive new armament or guidance systems. They are still flip flops developed more than 60 years ago, whose combat capabilities are symbolic, and the number of machines that are actually fit to fly is another key issue that is better off the veil of silence.

Croatia has been planning to phase out MiG-21s at least from 2008, but has yet to finance the purchase of more modern aircraft and other related expenses. This is an estimate, depending on the option chosen, for approximately $ 300-400 million plus the costs of upgrading infrastructure and staff training. The current government has finally decided to take this difficult decision with active support from Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović. Last December, she announced in a television interview that a new fighter would be selected in 2017. The aim is to introduce new aircraft no later than 2020.

Four offers, two types

In July, up to five potential suppliers were sent an inquiry. In the case of Sweden, it is a machine JAS 39 Gripen, South Korea - FA-50, the US, Israel and Greece - F-16. The last two countries are a potential source of used machines. In the first days of October, four of the respondents arrived. Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd (KAI), with its light supersonic combat aircraft, the FA-50, is the most advanced version of the T-50 Golden Eagle.

Saab remains in the fight with the JAS 39 Gripen squadron. This is the most expensive option, but the Swedish government offers not only a 15-year loan but also 4 Gripen used as a bridging solution before delivery of target machines. The other three offers - American, Greek and Israeli - concern F-16s in various versions. The Lockheed Martin American company offers new machines in one of the current versions. Greece and Israel offer used F-16A / B aircraft. Israeli airfares cover at least 20 years, but with upgrades and support. The details of the Greek proposal are unknown.

Fighter JAS39 Gripen of Czech aviation, Photo. Czech Army

Need a quick decision

All the bids have already been received by the Croatian Ministry of Defense, which said that the assessment, which will be carried out by the expert team appointed for this purpose, will last about two months. - Key parameters evaluated in the selection process, in addition to the characteristics and capabilities of aircraft, will be three segments: intergovernmental agreement, price and economic and industrial cooperation package - the ministry said.

In this way, it is once again emphasized that the intergovernmental agreement or at least the government guarantee is strongly preferred, which reduces the risk of corruption. At the same time, the Croatian government is counting on the transfer of competences and the injection of new technologies into the domestic industry. In the context of this type of requirements, negotiations can be quite complex, which could jeopardize the date of introduction of the first machines, which is quite rigidly scheduled for 2020. Therefore, it is expected that the tenderer with whom the negotiations will proceed will be promptly selected.

Croatian MiGi-21, Photo. Croatia

The ambitious plan announced at the beginning of the year by President Grabar-Kitarovic is to conclude an agreement before the end of this year. Serbian impetus will certainly be a sign of the contract. Six Russian-supplied MiG-29s will be ready for flight on 20 October. By then they will be at least assembled and will look ready. Belgrade is due to visit Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shojgu, who is expected to attend a ceremonial reception of service aircraft.

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